The World of Flying by Angelo Meneses
In the beginning it was just a dream. Icarus tried it, but the Wright brothers did it. Since then, aviation has developed from an elite-only luxury to an all public basic service. But it has many new challenges ahead and many other developments to be expected.
It’s a fact that the world is running at an astonishingly fast pace and that, more than ever, time is money. Business men need to be in different places in the world almost at the same time. And, although new technologies make it possible to be somewhere without really being there, there are many occasions that still need a physical presence. Thus, the importance of transportation, especially, aviation.
But the interesting aspect of the modern aviation industry is the massification of flying, specially for tourism purposes. From intercontinental flights that took many days, had stops aplenty and would cost a big amount of money, the aviation industry has evolved to a point where it is possible for a passenger to cross the Atlantic in under 8 hours (and in fact, until recently, in less than 4 super-sonic hours).
It’s a paradox that the Concorde has been put to sleep, when many other models of aircrafts have had more accidents and the need for speed in air travel has seen an increasing demand. But the low demand on Concorde flights definitely dictated its future, specially in an era where profit is the number one aim for the airlines.
But if speed is not the only bet for the future, what is it then? Actually, there are two answers for that, depending on where you seek them. In the USA, Boeing is targeting a more regional style of flying, whilst in Europe Airbus is betting on long-haul flights, with its A380, for which there are now over 150 requests from airlines all over the world. The truth is that both companies are probably right. The future of flying will in fact include more and more short-haul flights between small regional airports. It is already happening. Just look at the North American market and all the low cost airlines booming through out Europe. But passengers won’t stick to short-haul flights in a world that is apparently shrinking every minute. What to do when one needs to get to the other side of the world? One will, obviously, need to take a long-haul flight.
And for this mixed future, the airplane construction companies are getting ready. Boeing will introduce the Dreamliner, which will mainly provide flights for short distances. And Airbus will lead the way with the A380 on the long distance flights, providing a spacious aircraft, able to take off with up to 800 passengers. Whether we look to one or the other, some things are obviously common: the worries about fuel efficiency, safety and construction costs and materials (specially with composite materials of the Dreamliner).
But the massification of air travel brings up another very important aspect: low-fare flying. This complex idea is based on three main pillars: the proximity to the clients’ needs, a natural low cost in exchange for no frills, and a lower cost for handling the aircrafts in smaller airports (which nowadays have to compete among themselves). For many years now, low cost airlines have been thriving in North America and Europe (where they still find room to grow), but they haven’t stopped growing. Southeast Asia has now more than one option and even India and Pakistan have their own low-fare carriers. But they still have something in common: the short distance of destinations. But even that will change soon. Entrepreneurs in Hong Kong will launch the first long-haul low cost airline, with cuts up to 80% over the cost on traditional airlines (according to its own sources). Whether this will be successful or not is not even a question. The question is how fast will it become a success?
Another challenge airlines will have to face in the future, specially in countries such as Japan, Germany, Spain or even China is the growth of high speed train travel. And it’s a rather unfair fight that airlines may actually lose: why should a passenger bother going out of town, all the way to the airport, checking in and out, then to another long transfer to the centre of the city upon his arrival? High-speed trains, on the other hand, will nowadays get you from one city centre to the other in almost the same time, with much less hassle.
But, on the other hand, there is a very interesting aspect going on in developing countries. The increase of business making and the growth of the middle class in those countries will bring an all new public to airlines, making it possible for them to grow domestically and also internationally. China is no good example, as it changes every hour, but the transformation of the flying market there is a good example: In 2000, for example, very little foreign companies flew to Guangzhou – only 7- , nowadays there are 16; even Shanghai had to build a new airport (Pudong) only to cope with the influx of flights and a second terminal is already underway, with two more to go. But other places show how different things are nowadays: Dubai was a small emirate for centuries and its airport had little if no importance until the 90’s. Nowadays it’s the hub to one of the fastest growing airlines, consistently voted as one of the best, Emirates. It receives flights from over 60 different airlines; and projects for a second airport in Dubai are already under way. Even in Latin America, LAN (from Chile) has grown into a multi-national company, filling the voids in countries such as Peru or Ecuador.
It’s a fact that the world is running at an astonishingly fast pace and that, more than ever, time is money. Business men need to be in different places in the world almost at the same time. And, although new technologies make it possible to be somewhere without really being there, there are many occasions that still need a physical presence. Thus, the importance of transportation, especially, aviation.
But the interesting aspect of the modern aviation industry is the massification of flying, specially for tourism purposes. From intercontinental flights that took many days, had stops aplenty and would cost a big amount of money, the aviation industry has evolved to a point where it is possible for a passenger to cross the Atlantic in under 8 hours (and in fact, until recently, in less than 4 super-sonic hours).
It’s a paradox that the Concorde has been put to sleep, when many other models of aircrafts have had more accidents and the need for speed in air travel has seen an increasing demand. But the low demand on Concorde flights definitely dictated its future, specially in an era where profit is the number one aim for the airlines.
But if speed is not the only bet for the future, what is it then? Actually, there are two answers for that, depending on where you seek them. In the USA, Boeing is targeting a more regional style of flying, whilst in Europe Airbus is betting on long-haul flights, with its A380, for which there are now over 150 requests from airlines all over the world. The truth is that both companies are probably right. The future of flying will in fact include more and more short-haul flights between small regional airports. It is already happening. Just look at the North American market and all the low cost airlines booming through out Europe. But passengers won’t stick to short-haul flights in a world that is apparently shrinking every minute. What to do when one needs to get to the other side of the world? One will, obviously, need to take a long-haul flight.
And for this mixed future, the airplane construction companies are getting ready. Boeing will introduce the Dreamliner, which will mainly provide flights for short distances. And Airbus will lead the way with the A380 on the long distance flights, providing a spacious aircraft, able to take off with up to 800 passengers. Whether we look to one or the other, some things are obviously common: the worries about fuel efficiency, safety and construction costs and materials (specially with composite materials of the Dreamliner).
But the massification of air travel brings up another very important aspect: low-fare flying. This complex idea is based on three main pillars: the proximity to the clients’ needs, a natural low cost in exchange for no frills, and a lower cost for handling the aircrafts in smaller airports (which nowadays have to compete among themselves). For many years now, low cost airlines have been thriving in North America and Europe (where they still find room to grow), but they haven’t stopped growing. Southeast Asia has now more than one option and even India and Pakistan have their own low-fare carriers. But they still have something in common: the short distance of destinations. But even that will change soon. Entrepreneurs in Hong Kong will launch the first long-haul low cost airline, with cuts up to 80% over the cost on traditional airlines (according to its own sources). Whether this will be successful or not is not even a question. The question is how fast will it become a success?
Another challenge airlines will have to face in the future, specially in countries such as Japan, Germany, Spain or even China is the growth of high speed train travel. And it’s a rather unfair fight that airlines may actually lose: why should a passenger bother going out of town, all the way to the airport, checking in and out, then to another long transfer to the centre of the city upon his arrival? High-speed trains, on the other hand, will nowadays get you from one city centre to the other in almost the same time, with much less hassle.
But, on the other hand, there is a very interesting aspect going on in developing countries. The increase of business making and the growth of the middle class in those countries will bring an all new public to airlines, making it possible for them to grow domestically and also internationally. China is no good example, as it changes every hour, but the transformation of the flying market there is a good example: In 2000, for example, very little foreign companies flew to Guangzhou – only 7- , nowadays there are 16; even Shanghai had to build a new airport (Pudong) only to cope with the influx of flights and a second terminal is already underway, with two more to go. But other places show how different things are nowadays: Dubai was a small emirate for centuries and its airport had little if no importance until the 90’s. Nowadays it’s the hub to one of the fastest growing airlines, consistently voted as one of the best, Emirates. It receives flights from over 60 different airlines; and projects for a second airport in Dubai are already under way. Even in Latin America, LAN (from Chile) has grown into a multi-national company, filling the voids in countries such as Peru or Ecuador.
Finally, there is yet another element to take into analysis: the future of the airlines themselves. In Africa, for example, every day seems to bring new airlines to life (mainly because of failed ventures – as Air Afrique – and political instability, despite the good performances of TACV or Ethiopian Airlines), but in Europe, for example, major airline take-overs are becoming more common, as Air France proved when it bought KLM, and even the failed businesses have their importance: the recent attempt by TAP to purchase Varig; the previous attempt of merging KLM and Alitalia; and the doomed merging of Swissair and Sabena (one of the first airlines in the world). In North America, airlines seem to live on the edge every day, buffered by governmental aid. But the future will certainly see the reinforcement of the present alliances, drawing new companies into themselves and the widening of cooperation agreements.
Today, we live in a world of flying, where more people than ever are getting a chance to fly and where non-first time flyers tend to fly more. The massification of air travel is a fact, and there is no turning back, despite all the set backs. But the niches can always be explored, being low cost, business or very long non-stop flights (A380 will make it possible to fly from Europe to Australia non-stop). And that is also a fact. All this will happen long before Man can hop in a spacecraft to spend a weekend on the Moon.
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